Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira

BantamweightUFC Fight Night · Feb 7, 2026, 5:00 PM EST

Main Card

5 rounds

Prediction & odds

Result

Mario Bautista

def. Vinicius Oliveira by Submission (Rear-naked choke), round 2, 4:46.

Main CardBantamweight · 5 RDsUFC Fight Night →
MarioBautista
US
18-3-0-140(56%)
Winner
24-4-0+120(44%)
BR“LokDog”
ViniciusOliveira
MarioBautista
US
18-3-0-140(56%)
Winner
24-4-0+120(44%)
BR“LokDog”
ViniciusOliveira
Tale of the Tape:
Mario BautistavsVinicius Oliveira
18-3-0Record24-4-0
-140Odds+120
56%Win chance44%
5'9"Height5'9"
69"Reach72"
32Age30
Glendale, ArizonaFights out ofPorto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
Fight Stats:
Mario BautistaVinicius Oliveira
0Knockdowns0
15 of 27 (56%)Sig. strikes12 of 21 (57%)
49 of 63Total strikes18 of 27
5 of 7 (71%)Takedowns0 of 1 (0%)
1Sub attempts0
0Reversals0
5:47Control time1:39
Sig. strikes by target
10 of 20Head3 of 10
5 of 6Body3 of 5
0 of 1Leg6 of 6
Sig. strikes by position
6 of 12Distance9 of 18
0 of 2Clinch3 of 3
9 of 13Ground0 of 0

Source: UFCStats

Your Pick:

Picks are closed for this fight.

What the Odds Said:
Mario Bautista-140 · 56%
Vinicius Oliveira+120 · 44%

Mario Bautista is the -140 favorite, about a 56% chance to win once the bookmaker's margin is removed. Vinicius Oliveira is the +120 underdog (44%).

Recent Form Going In:

Mario Bautista

Record18-3
Fighting out ofGlendale, Arizona

Bautista: 4-1 in the last 5.

  • Lvs. Umar NurmagomedovDecision · R3 · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. GaneOct 2025
  • Wvs. Patchy MixDecision · R3 · UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2Jun 2025
  • Wvs. José AldoDecision · R3 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. RountreeOct 2024
  • Wvs. Ricky SimónDecision · R3 · UFC Fight NightJan 2024
  • Wvs. Da'Mon BlackshearDecision · R3 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'MalleyAug 2023

Vinicius Oliveira

Record24-4
Fighting out ofPorto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

Oliveira: 5-0 in the last 5, 2 wins by finish (5-fight win streak).

  • Wvs. Kyler PhillipsDecision · R3 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3Jul 2025
  • Wvs. Said NurmagomedovDecision · R3 · UFC Fight NightFeb 2025
  • Wvs. Ricky SimónDecision · R3 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Procházka 2Jun 2024
  • Wvs. Benardo SopajKO/TKO · R3 · UFC Fight NightMar 2024
  • Wvs. Victor MadrigalKO/TKO · R1 · Contender Series 2023Sep 2023
UFC Fight Night Card: