Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas Fernando

Light HeavyweightUFC 330 · Aug 15, 2026, 5:30 PM EDT

Early Prelims

3 rounds

Prediction & odds

Result

Lucas Fernando

def. Rafael Tobias by TKO (Knee to the body and elbows), round 3, 1:10.

Early PrelimsLight Heavyweight · 3 RDsUFC 330 →
RafaelTobias
BR“Bipolar”
14-3-0+237(29%)
Winner
14-3-0-290(71%)
BR
LucasFernando
RafaelTobias
BR“Bipolar”
14-3-0+237(29%)
Winner
14-3-0-290(71%)
BR
LucasFernando
Tale of the Tape:
Rafael TobiasvsLucas Fernando
14-3-0Record14-3-0
+237Odds-290
29%Win chance71%
6'2"Height6'3"
75"Reach80"
23Age29
Miami, Florida, USAFights out ofRio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Fight Stats:
Rafael TobiasLucas Fernando
0Knockdowns2
13 of 56 (23%)Sig. strikes69 of 115 (60%)
14 of 58Total strikes69 of 115
1 of 1 (100%)Takedowns0 of 0
0Sub attempts0
0Reversals0
0:55Control time0:09
Sig. strikes by target
5 of 47Head37 of 80
5 of 5Body18 of 20
3 of 4Leg14 of 15
Sig. strikes by position
11 of 52Distance66 of 111
1 of 2Clinch1 of 1
1 of 2Ground2 of 3

Source: UFCStats

Your Pick:

Picks are closed for this fight.

What the Odds Said:
Rafael Tobias+237 · 29%
Lucas Fernando-290 · 71%

Lucas Fernando is the -290 favorite, about a 71% chance to win once the bookmaker's margin is removed. Rafael Tobias is the +237 underdog (29%).

Recent Form Going In:

Rafael Tobias

Record14-3
Fighting out ofMiami, Florida, USA

Tobias: 4-1 in the last 5, 4 wins by finish.

  • Lvs. Diyar NurgozhayDecision · R3 · UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2Mar 2026
  • Wvs. Jair de OliveiraSubmission · R1 · Contender Series 2025Sep 2025
  • Wvs. Wellington LopesKO/TKO · R2 · TKO Palmasnet 3Apr 2025
  • Wvs. Marcelo Alejandro Nuñez SparlingKO/TKO · R1 · FFC 79: Sordi vs. LezamaAug 2024
  • Wvs. Marcelo Alejandro NuñezKO/TKO · R1 · FFC 79: Sordi vs. LezamaAug 2024

Lucas Fernando

Record14-3
Fighting out ofRio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Fernando: 3-2 in the last 5, 1 win by finish (3-fight win streak).

  • Wvs. Phillip LatuKO/TKO · R1 · LFA 214: Fernando vs. LatuAug 2025
  • Wvs. Pedro OliveiraDecision · R3 · LFA 191: Prado vs. LopesAug 2024
  • Wvs. João Paulo SilvaDecision · R3 · LFA 183: Cantanhede vs. GuimarãesMay 2024
  • Lvs. Azamat BekoevDecision · R5 · LFA 173: Fernando vs. BekoevDec 2023
  • Lvs. César AlmeidaDecision · R3 · Contender Series 2023Aug 2023
UFC 330 Card:
Early Prelims
  1. Rafael Tobias vs. Lucas FernandoViewing
  2. Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj›
  3. Myktybek Orolbai vs. Jeremiah Wells›