Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje

LightweightUFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT

Main Card

5 rounds

Prediction & odds

Result

Justin Gaethje

def. Ilia Topuria by TKO (Corner stoppage), round 4, 5:00.

Title FightLightweight · 5 RDsUFC Freedom 250 →
IliaTopuria
GE“El Matador”
17-1-0-550(81%)
Winner
28-5-0+400(19%)
US“The Highlight”
JustinGaethje
IliaTopuria
GE“El Matador”
17-1-0-550(81%)
Winner
28-5-0+400(19%)
US“The Highlight”
JustinGaethje
Tale of the Tape:
Ilia TopuriavsJustin Gaethje
17-1-0Record28-5-0
-550Odds+400
81%Win chance19%
5'7"Height5'11"
69"Reach70"
29Age37
Alicante, SpainFights out ofGreeley, Colorado
Fight Stats:
Ilia TopuriaJustin Gaethje
1Knockdowns0
97 of 162 (60%)Sig. strikes91 of 192 (47%)
111 of 177Total strikes119 of 228
1 of 3 (33%)Takedowns0 of 5 (0%)
0Sub attempts0
0Reversals0
2:32Control time1:32
Sig. strikes by target
55 of 112Head79 of 175
37 of 45Body8 of 12
5 of 5Leg4 of 5
Sig. strikes by position
68 of 125Distance73 of 167
22 of 29Clinch15 of 21
7 of 8Ground3 of 4

Source: UFCStats

Your Pick:

Picks are closed for this fight.

What the Odds Said:
Ilia Topuria-550 · 81%
Justin Gaethje+400 · 19%

Ilia Topuria is the -550 favorite, about a 81% chance to win once the bookmaker's margin is removed. Justin Gaethje is the +400 underdog (19%).

Recent Form Going In:

Ilia Topuria

Record17-1
Fighting out ofAlicante, Spain

Topuria: 5-0 in the last 5, 4 wins by finish (5-fight win streak).

Justin Gaethje

Record28-5
Fighting out ofGreeley, Colorado

Gaethje: 4-1 in the last 5, 1 win by finish (2-fight win streak).

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UFC Freedom 250 Card: