Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki

LightweightUFC 328 · May 9, 2026, 5:00 PM EDT

Prelims

3 rounds

Prediction & odds

Result

Grant Dawson

def. Mateusz Rębecki by Submission (Rear-naked choke), round 3, 4:42.

PrelimsLightweight · 3 RDsUFC 328 →
GrantDawson
US“KGD”
25-3-1-165(60%)
Winner
21-5-0+145(40%)
PL
MateuszRębecki
GrantDawson
US“KGD”
25-3-1-165(60%)
Winner
21-5-0+145(40%)
PL
MateuszRębecki
Tale of the Tape:
Grant DawsonvsMateusz Rębecki
25-3-1Record21-5-0
-165Odds+145
60%Win chance40%
5'10"Height5'7"
72"Reach66"
32Age33
Coconut Creek, Florida, USAFights out ofSzczecin, Poland
Fight Stats:
Grant DawsonMateusz Rębecki
0Knockdowns1
35 of 94 (37%)Sig. strikes33 of 64 (52%)
71 of 136Total strikes49 of 81
1 of 3 (33%)Takedowns1 of 5 (20%)
4Sub attempts0
0Reversals1
7:08Control time2:22
Sig. strikes by target
19 of 67Head27 of 56
14 of 23Body1 of 2
2 of 4Leg5 of 6
Sig. strikes by position
24 of 81Distance27 of 50
6 of 7Clinch4 of 4
5 of 6Ground2 of 10

Source: UFCStats

Your Pick:

Picks are closed for this fight.

What the Odds Said:
Grant Dawson-165 · 60%
Mateusz Rębecki+145 · 40%

Grant Dawson is the -165 favorite, about a 60% chance to win once the bookmaker's margin is removed. Mateusz Rębecki is the +145 underdog (40%).

Recent Form Going In:

Grant Dawson

Record25-3-1
Fighting out ofCoconut Creek, Florida, USA

Dawson: 3-2 in the last 5, 1 win by finish.

  • Lvs. Manuel TorresTKO · R1 · UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2Dec 2025
  • Wvs. Diego FerreiraDecision · R3 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. MoicanoJan 2025
  • Wvs. Rafa GarcíaKO/TKO · R2 · UFC Fight NightOct 2024
  • Wvs. Joe SoleckiDecision · R3 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. PoirierJun 2024
  • Lvs. King GreenKO/TKO · R1 · UFC Fight NightOct 2023

Mateusz Rębecki

Record21-5
Fighting out ofSzczecin, Poland

Rębecki: 2-3 in the last 5, 1 win by finish (2-fight losing streak).

  • Lvs. Ľudovít KleinDecision · R3 · UFC 321: Aspinall vs. GaneOct 2025
  • Lvs. Chris DuncanDecision · R3 · UFC Fight NightAug 2025
  • Wvs. Myktybek OrolbaiDecision · R3 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. HollowayOct 2024
  • Lvs. Diego FerreiraKO/TKO · R3 · UFC Fight NightMay 2024
  • Wvs. Roosevelt RobertsSubmission · R1 · UFC 295: Procházka vs. PereiraNov 2023
UFC 328 Card: