Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay

Light HeavyweightUFC 326 · Mar 7, 2026, 5:30 PM EST

Early Prelims

Prediction & odds

Result

Diyar Nurgozhay

def. Rafael Tobias by Decision (Unanimous), round 3, 5:00.

Early PrelimsLight HeavyweightUFC 326 →
RafaelTobias
BR“Bipolar”
14-3-0-175(61%)
Winner
12-2-0+150(39%)
KZ
DiyarNurgozhay
RafaelTobias
BR“Bipolar”
14-3-0-175(61%)
Winner
12-2-0+150(39%)
KZ
DiyarNurgozhay
Tale of the Tape:
Rafael TobiasvsDiyar Nurgozhay
14-3-0Record12-2-0
-175Odds+150
61%Win chance39%
6'2"Height6'2"
75"Reach74"
23Age29
Miami, Florida, USAFights out ofAstana, Kazakhstan
Fight Stats:
Rafael TobiasDiyar Nurgozhay
0Knockdowns0
39 of 101 (39%)Sig. strikes94 of 143 (66%)
52 of 114Total strikes100 of 150
2 of 8 (25%)Takedowns0 of 1 (0%)
1Sub attempts0
0Reversals1
2:31Control time1:28
Sig. strikes by target
29 of 86Head33 of 71
7 of 10Body37 of 47
3 of 5Leg24 of 25
Sig. strikes by position
26 of 84Distance81 of 122
4 of 6Clinch5 of 6
9 of 11Ground8 of 15

Source: UFCStats

Your Pick:

Picks are closed for this fight.

What the Odds Said:
Rafael Tobias-175 · 61%
Diyar Nurgozhay+150 · 39%

Rafael Tobias is the -175 favorite, about a 61% chance to win once the bookmaker's margin is removed. Diyar Nurgozhay is the +150 underdog (39%).

Recent Form Going In:

Rafael Tobias

Record14-3
Fighting out ofMiami, Florida, USA

Tobias: 5-0 in the last 5, 4 wins by finish (5-fight win streak).

  • Wvs. Jair de OliveiraSubmission · R1 · Contender Series 2025Sep 2025
  • Wvs. Wellington LopesKO/TKO · R2 · TKO Palmasnet 3Apr 2025
  • Wvs. Marcelo Alejandro Nuñez SparlingKO/TKO · R1 · FFC 79: Sordi vs. LezamaAug 2024
  • Wvs. Marcelo Alejandro NuñezKO/TKO · R1 · FFC 79: Sordi vs. LezamaAug 2024
  • Wvs. Willyanedson PaivaDecision · R3 · Fight Music ShowApr 2024

Diyar Nurgozhay

Record12-2
Fighting out ofAstana, Kazakhstan

Nurgozhay: 3-2 in the last 5, 2 wins by finish (2-fight losing streak).

  • Lvs. Uran SatybaldievSubmission · R1 · UFC Fight NightAug 2025
  • Lvs. Brendson RibeiroSubmission · R2 · UFC Fight NightMar 2025
  • Wvs. Bartosz SzewczykKO/TKO · R2 · Contender Series 2024Oct 2024
  • Wvs. Emiliano SordiKO/TKO · R1 · UAE Warriors 50May 2024
  • Wvs. Konstantin AndreitsevDecision · R5 · Eagle FC 50Aug 2022
UFC 326 Card:
Early Prelims
  1. Su Mudaerji vs. Jesús Santos Aguilar›
  2. Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar NurgozhayViewing
  3. Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato›